News

WEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 31st MARCH

Headlines

In the week ending Mar 31st 2019, ESC creation was as follows:

  • Weekly creation was 57,500 ESCs down 54% compared to the previous week’s creation of 123,832 ESCs
  • This represents a return to expected creation levels after the previous weeks unusually high creation.
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is 77,618 ESCs
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 54,432 ESCs (95%) compared to 57,034 ESCs (46%) the previous week
  • The ESC spot price was $21.00 COB Friday, up $0.15 from the previous Friday
  • The top CL creators this week were National Carbon Bank of Australia, Ecovantage & AGL.
  • The only HEER creators were GET & NCBA.

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total ESCs registered each week. 

 

 

GemmaWEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 31st MARCH
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WEEKLY VEEC ANALYSIS WE 31st MARCH

Headline – Refreshed 21A GLS Activity Performance

  • Changes to the 21A GLS replacement activity created a lot of enthusiasm amongst APs with the opportunity to revisit previously upgraded premises and replace CFLs with LED Abulbs.
  • Since coming into effect on 10th of December 2018, creation from this activity has been below expectations.
  • However, there has been steady growth over the last few weeks with a new weekly record of over 15,000 VEECs created last week.
  • Below is a chart of the number of weekly VEECs created by each residential 21 activities since week ending 20th Jan 2019. 21A is shown in red.
  • In total creation rates would suggest that 140k Abulbs have been installed since December 2018.
  • However, the actual number is likely to be much higher as APs must wait to create VEECs due the new requirement to have decommissioning receipts prior to creation.

Results

In the week ending 31st March 2019, VEEC creation was as follows:

  • 77,773 up 35% compared to the previous week’s creation of 57,704
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is 67,962
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 45,145 (58%) compared to 26,811 (47%) the previous week
  • The VEEC spot price was $21.00 COB Friday, up $0.30 from the previous Friday.
  • The top creators in CL – Ecolightup, Wattly, & Green Energy Trading.
  • Updated 21A was up on creation with 15,454 VEECs created compared to 12,780 the week before.
  • Top 21A creators were, Energy Makeovers, EBG, & Ecovantage.

 

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total VEECs created each week.

The graph below shows creation against targets.  The right hand axis is for the cumulative creation and cumulative target, and the left hand axis the weekly creation.  Please note, this is creation – not all VEECs created are registered.

To give you a visual breakdown of Activities for the week, please see below.

GemmaWEEKLY VEEC ANALYSIS WE 31st MARCH
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WEEKLY VEEC ANALYSIS WE 24th MARCH

Headline – Performance Against Current Targets

  • The 2018 compliance year VEEC surrender is due next month. At this time 6.1M VEECs will be required to be surrendered.
  • The current total of 11.3M registered VEECs mean that 5.2M VEECs will remain for surrender against the 2019 target of 6.3M.
  • That means that activities generating 1.1M VEECs still need to be undertaken prior to January 2020 to meet the 2019 target.
  • The 2020 target is another 6.5M VEECS.
  • While meeting the target for 2019 appears academic, meeting the increased 2020 target at current creation rates will not be possible.
  • With 92 creation weeks remaining, and a total of 7.4M VEECs required, this equates to an average of 80k VEECs created every single week between now and the end of 2020.
  • Creation rates have been trending down since August 2018.
  • Current 3-week average is 66k per week. Average for 2019 to date is only 62k.
  • This means that forecasts predict that created VEECs will be below required target by the second half of next year.
  • Post 2020 targets are being discussed at the moment with further increased targets likely.

The graph below shows creation against targets.  The right hand axis is for the cumulative creation and cumulative target, and the left hand axis the weekly creation.  Please note, this is creation – not all VEECs created are registered.

 

Results

In the week ending 24th March 2019, VEEC creation was as follows:

  • 57,704 down 16% compared to the previous week’s creation of 68,410
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is 66575
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 26,811 (47%) compared to 47,888 (70%) the previous week
  • The VEEC spot price was $20.70 COB Friday, down $0.10 from the previous Friday.
  • The top 4 creators in CL – Wattly, Cyanergy & Green Energy Trading.
  • Updated 21A was slightly up on creation with 12,780 VEECs created compared to 11,259 the week before.

 

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total VEECs created each week.

GemmaWEEKLY VEEC ANALYSIS WE 24th MARCH
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WEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 24th MARCH

Headlines

 

In the week ending Mar 24th 2019, ESC creation was as follows:

  • Weekly creation was 123,832 ESCs up 140% compared to the previous week’s creation of 51,521 ESCs
  • This is due to a massive 53,811 ESCs being registered for Sale of New Appliances.
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is 72,740 ESCs
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 57,034 ESCs (46%) compared to 32,528 ESCs (63%) the previous week
  • The ESC spot price was $20.85 COB Friday, down $0.40 from the previous Friday

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total ESCs registered each week. 

 

GemmaWEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 24th MARCH
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