News

WEEKLY VEU ANALYSIS WE 12th MAY

 

Headlines – Increased Creation & VEEC Price Unchanged

  • Last week saw another strong week of creation as APs continued to catch up on work post Easter holidays with over 135k VEECs created. Please refer to the graph below of the two most popular activities.

 

  • The VEEC price remained unchanged in a quiet week of trading at $22.00.

 

  • The 2019 target is 6.3M with currently 6,114,990 already Registered or Created. (5.3M Registered, 78k Created awaiting Registration)
  • Meaning the 2019 target requires only 185,010 more VEECs to be created between now and the end of the year to satisfy this target.
  • At current creation rates this will be reached in the next few weeks.
  • The 2020 target is 6,500,000.
  • This means in total, the scheme needs to be create 6,685,000 VEECs between today and the end of 2020. (86 creation weeks)
  • Therefore, an average of 78k VEECs need to be created every week between now and then.
  • Average creation for 2019 to this point has been 70k VEECs/week.
  • Current 3-week average is 89k VEECs/week.
  • Targets for 2021, 2022 & 2023 are being discussed at the moment and will be published soon.
  • Below are last week’s results in detail.
  •  ResultsIn the week ending 12th May 2019, VEEC creation was as follows:
    • 136,213 up 35% compared to the previous week’s creation of 100,747.
    • The average for the last 3 weeks is now 88,993
    • Commercial Lighting contributed 75,752 (55%) compared to 55,084 (55%) the previous week
    • Updated 21A contributed 44,406 VEECs (32%) created compared to 25,914 VEECs (26%) the week before.
    • The VEEC spot price was $22.00 COB Friday, unchanged from the previous Friday

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total VEECs created each week.

 

The graph below shows creation against targets.  The right hand axis is for the cumulative creation and cumulative target, and the left hand axis the weekly creation.  Please note, this is creation – not all VEECs created are registered.

To give you a visual breakdown of Activities for the week, please see below.

GemmaWEEKLY VEU ANALYSIS WE 12th MAY
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WEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 12th MAY

Headlines

In the week ending 12th May 2019, ESC creation was as follows:

  • Weekly creation was 74,829 ESCs up 100% compared to the previous week’s creation of 37,488 ESCs
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is 45,004 ESCs
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 59,596 ESCs (80%) compared to 17,707 ESCs (47%) the previous week
  • HEER contributed 7,642 ESCs (10%) compared to 12,135 ESCs (11%) the previous week.
  • The ESC spot price was $21.00 COB Friday, up $0.60 from the previous Friday
  • The top CL creators this week were EC Focus, Optimum Energy and Out Performers.
  • The only HEER creators were Phenix, Accredited Power Saver Co. & Green Energy Trading.

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total ESCs registered each week. 

 

 

GemmaWEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 12th MAY
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WEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 5th MAY

Headlines

In the week ending 5th May 2019, ESC creation was as follows:

  • Weekly creation was 37,488 ESCs up 65% compared to the previous week’s creation of 22,696 ESCs
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is 72,937 ESCs
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 17,707 ESCs (47%) compared to 17,998 ESCs (79%) the previous week
  • HEER contributed 12,135 ESCs (11%) down from 1,964 ESCs (9%) the previous week.
  • Public Lighting activity created 3,943 ESCs last week indicating a project was completed.
  • The ESC spot price was $20.40 COB Friday, down $0.40 from the previous Friday

 

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total ESCs registered each week. 

 

 

GemmaWEEKLY NSW ESS ANALYSIS WE 5th MAY
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WEEKLY VEU ANALYSIS WE 5th MAY

Headlines – Increased Creation, VEEC Price Rise, 21A announcements & 2018 Target Surrender

  • Due to the Easter break disruptions, the results for the two previous weeks are understandably not representative of current trends due to disruptions in processing certificates.
  • Last week saw an increase in creation as APs returned to work post Easter with over 100k VEECs created. Please refer to the graph below of the two most popular activities.

 

  • During the post Easter period the VEEC price rose by a dollar from $21.00 to $22.00.

  • Two weeks of (artificial) low creation over this period could possibly explain the bump in VEEC spot price.
  • The announcement by the ESC to extend the 21A non-omnidirectional transition period by one month to 31st July is unlikely to be responsible, and in fact, was announced after the price had moved. For announcement details please refer to link program update
  • The ESC also released guidance to advise all APs performing Residential upgrades (e.g. 21A) that they must ensure all installers use non-conductive portable ladders compliant with AS/NZS 1892.5 (Portable ladders: Selection, safe use and care). Refer to link program update for more details.
  • The 2018 VEU target surrender date has passed at the end of April with 6.384M VEECs pending surrender against the 2018 target of 6.1M. This is slightly more than the expected target indicating electricity usage was higher than expected over the year.
  • The 2019 target is 6.3M with currently 5,978,619 Registered or Created. (5.3M already Registered, 667,719 pending authorisation & 38,385 pending registration)
  • Meaning the 2019 target requires only 320,000 more VEECs to be created between now and the end of the year to satisfy this target.
  • At the current average creation rate of 68k VEECs per week, this means the provisional target will be reached in 5 weeks’ time by mid-June.
  • However, in order to reach the 6.5M VEECs required for the 2020 surrender, an average of 80k VEECs need to be created every single week from this week until the end of 2020.
  • This represents a much higher, nearly 20%, creation rate than current trends (68k per week) and weekly creation has only exceeded 80k 4 times in 2019 out of 18 weeks and only exceeded 100k once (last week).
  • Below are last week’s results for in detail.

Results

In the week ending 5th May 2019, VEEC creation was as follows:

  • 100,747 up 236% compared to the previous week’s creation of 30,020.
  • The average for the last 3 weeks is now 68,772
  • Commercial Lighting contributed 55,084 (55%) compared to 11,366 (38%) the previous week
  • Updated 21A contributed 25,914 VEECs (26%) created compared to 13,490 VEECs (45%) the week before.
  • The VEEC spot price was $22.00 COB Friday, up $1 from the previous Friday

 

The VEEC spot price was $20.50 COB Friday, unchanged from the previous Friday.

Analysis

The graph below shows the overall trend of total VEECs created each week.

 

The graph below shows creation against targets.  The right hand axis is for the cumulative creation and cumulative target, and the left hand axis the weekly creation.  Please note, this is creation – not all VEECs created are registered.

 

To give you a visual breakdown of Activities for the week, please see below.

GemmaWEEKLY VEU ANALYSIS WE 5th MAY
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